Al Bernstein: “Floyd Mayweather is clearly the favorite in the fight, but it’s not impossible for Manny Pacquiao to win.”

I recently had a chance to speak with world renowned commentator, Al Bernstein. Al is a Hall of Fame analyst and has been in the sport for over two decades, and has some of the biggest fights in boxing history. In this interview, I get Al Bernstein’s views on the Mayweather-Pacquiao negotiations and if he feels the fight will happen this time around. Bernstein also breaks down the keys to victory for both men for this mega fight. Additionally, Al Bernstein talks about the upcoming Broner-Molina and Thurman-Guerrero fights. Here is what Al Bernstein had to say.

Robert Brown: There have been many articles about Mayweather and Pacquiao and there are a number of theories about the negotiations. Can you clear up some of the fog for us?

Al Bernstein: I don’t have all the inside information but I can say that they’re all negotiating very earnestly and I think it’s still moving on track. I personally think that the chances of it happening are very good and I think we’ll probably hear something one way or the other within the next five or six days.

Robert Brown: Now that it seems that it’s going to happen, what are your thoughts on the fight?

Al Bernstein: We don’t know for sure, but it’s pretty close. I think it’s gonna be an interesting fight. Pacquiao, for him to be effective, he needs to throw a lot of combinations, throw volume punches — which is very hard to do against Mayweather. Mayweather tends to turn volume punchers into non volume punchers and of course if he can do that against Pacquiao, he’s got a much better chance of winning the fight.

Mayweather is certainly the favorite, I think we can expect that, and it will be up to Pacquiao to be able to change the perception of that. I think if it happens, it will be a very interesting fight.

Robert Brown: What do you think Pacquiao has to do and what do you think Mayweather has to do to win the fight?

Al Bernstein: I think for Pacquiao, the volume is important, he needs to throw multiple combinations. He needs to move laterally, he can’t just attack in a straight line. I think he needs to push Mayweather against the ropes and when he gets him there he needs to work and throw a lot of punches.

For Mayweather, he wants to stay in the center of the ring and I think the key element for him is the right hand. He can land the straight right with great impunity and Pacquiao could be hit with that punch. We’re gonna get a clue to where this fight’s headed early in the fight because we’ll find out if Mayweather can hurt Pacquiao at all with that right hand. If he can’t, then Pacquiao may be able to walk through it and land a lot of combinations.

Robert Brown: Does Pacquiao need to throw more jabs than usual in this fight?

Al Bernstein: Yeah, I think Pacquiao needs to use the jab effectively to work his way in. That’s what Maidana was able to do, especially in that first fight. One notable fight in which a volume puncher was able to stay a volume puncher was Maidana’s first fight against Mayweather and part of that was because he used the jab as a range finder and used that to work his way in.

Robert Brown: What’s your final tip on this fight, Al?

Al Bernstein: Well just that if it takes place, which we hope it will, I think as the fight itself is concerned, I think we’re gonna get an idea over the first three or four rounds whether Pacquiao can cut the ring off on Mayweather and whether he can make this a fight in which there’s lots of punches thrown and there’s a lot of activity, as opposed to Mayweather being able to control the tempo.

Robert Brown: Who would you be favoring at this stage?

Al Bernstein: I’ll probably announce this so I wouldn’t make a prediction, but Mayweather is clearly the favorite in the fight, but it’s not impossible for Pacquiao to win.

Robert Brown: We got a huge card coming up on NBC, John Molina vs. Adrien Broner is the headline fight. What are your thoughts on that fight?

Al Bernstein: It’s a very good card overall. The Molina-Broner fight is interesting. Molina did lose his last time out against Humberto Soto and it wasn’t his best performance but that may have sold the Broner people on doing this fight, but John Molina fought very well against Lucas Matthysse and hurt him.

Molina has power and he has also a height and reach advantage over Broner. When you look back at when Molina fought Mickey Bey, he was losing that fight but he was able hurt Bey late in the last round and got him out of there.

I think John Molina is gonna be a handful for Adrien Broner, it will be interesting to see what happens. If he can use his height and his reach and land the right hand, he’s gonna give Broner all he can handle. Broner can be hit, if you’re tall enough and have enough length, you can hit him with the right hand.

We’ll find out if he can absorb Molina’s right hands. Certainly Molina is capable of hurting him and getting him out of there. If it is a knockout, I personally think Molina is going to be the winner. A decision fight, chances are Broner will have done enough to win — although Broner is very inactive in many rounds, and that also doesn’t help him sometimes. This will be a tough test for Broner, there’s no question about that.

Robert Brown: What are your thoughts on Keith Thurman vs. Robert Guerrero?

Al Bernstein: I think it’s really a good fight, it’s one that they’ve been trying to make for about a year or so. Thurman looked a little more vulnerable against Leonard Bundu the last time out — he won virtually every round but wasn’t quite the destroyer he’s been in recent fights.

Robert Guerrero — who’s coming in with a bit of a lay off — is one of those fighters that when he can get on the inside and rough you up and make it an ugly brawl, he’s very effective. With all his power, Thurman probably doesn’t want to allow him to do that. I think that would serve Thurman well, to try and keep his distance in this fight — even though he is a big knockout puncher as well. Guerrero has a very good chin and if he gets on the inside, he can make things rough for Thurman.